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Based on the current market condition value of the selected aircraft, we
forecast the real dollar value of the aircraft in quarterly increments for up
to 15 years.
The forecast is derived from a three stage statistical model:
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macroeconomic and aircraft market data provide the foundation for an
econometric analysis used to forecast aircraft cohort prices as a function of
forecasted macroeconomic and industry production variables.
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in-model quarterly depreciation effects are estimated.
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short-term price momentum effects are also estimated using time on market data
and other short-term price drivers.
The model's outputs are subjected to dynamic backtesting to fine tune the
parameters. These effects are combined with aircraft-specific price
determinants (such as compatibility with noise requirements and fuel
efficiency) to derive a forecasted series of quarterly prices.
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